Lithuanians go to the polls on Sunday to choose their president with incumbent “Iron Lady” Dalia Grybauskaite a shoo-in as fears in this EU Baltic state soar over a resurgent Russia.
The karate black belt, nicknamed for her Thatcher-like resolve, is poised to win a second term as many here who remember Soviet times see her as a their best hope amid Europe’s worst standoff with Moscow since the Cold War.
A former EU budget chief, the 58-year-old Grybauskaite is likely to score over 50 percent of the vote, recent opinion surveys showed, but low turnout could trigger a May 25 run-off in this EU and NATO member country.
Six other candidates have all polled around 10 percent and are not regarded as serious rivals.
“If turnout exceeds 50 percent, she has quite a good chance of scoring a first round victory,” Ramunas Vilpisauskas, a political scientist at Vilnius University, told AFP.
A candidate must win half of the votes cast with a turnout of at least 50 percent to win in round one.
In 2009, Grybauskaite captured a resounding 69.04 percent of the vote in the seven-candidate first round with turnout at 51.67 percent.
View galleryEurofighter Typhoons from Britain's Royal Air Force …
Eurofighter Typhoons from Britain’s Royal Air Force fly over an air force base near Siauliai Zuo …
This election comes as Russia’s takeover of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula and sabre rattling in the neighbouring Russian exclave of Kaliningrad have sparked palpable fear in Lithuania, a country of three million.
Elvyra Vaicaityte, a student living a stone’s throw from Kaliningrad, is spooked by rumblings of military might in the Russian exclave, sandwiched between Lithuania and fellow NATO member Poland.
“I can hear explosions during exercises, and windows often rattle — I don’t feel very secure,” the 23-year-old told AFP in the border town of Vilkaviskis.
Grybauskaite first urged and then welcomed the arrival of American troops last month as NATO stepped up its presence in the Baltic states, which spent five decades under Soviet occupation until 1991.
Lithuania along with Baltic minnows Latvia and Estonia all are keen to see more alliance ‘boots on the ground’ amid the Ukraine crisis.
Grybauskaite has sworn to take up arms herself in case of Russian aggression.
View galleryUS and Lithuanian soldiers try to communicate after …
US and Lithuanian soldiers try to communicate after the arrival of US troops at the air force base n …
“If there’s a problem, I’ll never flee abroad. I’ll take a gun myself to defend the country if that what’s needed for national security,” she said as campaigning wound down Thursday.
Iron will vs. soft touch
Aurelija, a 36-year-old Vilnius businesswoman who declined to provide her family name, is impressed by Grybauskaite’s “determination, courage and strength” as national security has become a number one priority.
“In calm times, a hardline style could be annoying, but that is not the case now. Other candidates are weak opponents,” she told AFP.
Grybauskaite has backed the country’s first liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal intended to boost energy security by easing total dependence for gas on Russia’s Gazprom.
She also sees eurozone entry in 2015 as an economic buffer against Moscow.
In contrast to Grybauskaite’s firm line, her center-left and populist rivals insist dialogue with Russia is crucial, and have focused more on social issues.
“We’ll have to seek dialogue with Russia. Any kind of peace is better than a war,” Social Democrat Zigmantas Balcytis said.
Balcytis, a member of the European Parliament, and populist Labour party MP Arturas Paulauskas are her most likely rivals in a possible run-off.
“The Ukraine crisis is an important mobilising factor, and Grybauskaite’s stern rhetoric is likely to have appeal among centre-right voters,” says Professor Algis Krupavicius.
“Other candidates are focusing on her mistakes, rather than addressing the atmosphere of foreboding,” Vilnius-based analyst Tomas Janeliunas told AFP.
Augustinas Vizbaras, a 29-year-old Vilnius entrepreneur, says Grybauskaite has his vote. He has also volunteered in a paramilitary unit that was part of Lithuania’s WWII-era anti-Soviet resistance.
“We feel a Russian threat and I felt a civic duty to join the unit so that we prevent a repeat of a Ukraine scenario here,” Vizbaras told AFP.
Voting begins Sunday at 0400 GMT and closes at 1700 GMT with no exit polls scheduled.