In Kampala, the major determining factors for those contesting in upcoming elections have been zeroed at three.
They include floods mainly in Kawempe division, huge unemployment among youths in the city and increasing cases of drug abuse.
Whoever wants to win a poll, these three issues according to intelligence.
Given this analysis, it has been reported that the opposition is likely to lose some key seats in parliament if the current disorganization within the opposition forces continues up to the voting day.
This is contained in a secret report detailing hottest spots in Kampala.
The report done by intelligence on orders of security minister Mary Karooro Okurut, gives an insight into the likely highs and lows for the opposition and why NRM is likely to grab some seats which are currently in the hands of the opposition.
The brief is here.
Here, the constituency is in the hands of opposition MP Moses Kasibante.
He however, faces stiff competition from fellow oppositionist Beti Olive Namisango Kamya better known as BONK.
According to the report, the constituency is likely to fall either on Kamya or Kasibante depending on how each of the two plays his or her cards.
The duo is both opposition and is seen as strong.
“The case scenario is that any of the two can take this constituency. However, there are chances that NRM may take it if they both remain in the race and they [opposition] divide their votes,” the report stated.
Currently represented by Ken Lukyamuzi of Conservative Party, there are two other opposition DP candidates fighting him including Kato Lubwama and lawyer Katabarwa.
However, according to intelligence analysis, Ken has a slight edge over these two depending on how he will handle his campaigns.
There are chances that Ken might retain his seat because this is a strong opposition ground.
It is in Jeema’s Hussein Kyanjo’s hands.
This MP is not returning but he says he is bringing back his son something which has allegedly not been well received by all voters.
And yet, DP has also two candidates. These include a one Kalibbala and councilor Allan Ssewanyana.
DP is yet to decide on who to front because primaries are not yet conducted.
In case, this is sorted, the constituency is likely according to the report fall into the hands of any of these two DP people.
NRM’s John Ssimbwa is the area MP. It used to belong to opposition MP Michael Mabikke who didn’t stand in 2011 but opted to go for mayor ship.
He is now coming back. Ssimbwa faces fellow NRM challengers and Mabikke who is said to be still leading because he represented it ably in the previous parliaments for two terms.
Mabikke did physical things including setting up schools, supporting women/youth groups, promoting sports through Mabikke cup among other things which marketed him to date.
Ssimbwa is reported to have failed in this yet this constituency is largely opposition.
It is feared that the constituency might slide into opposition hands again.
Mohamad Nsereko is the area MP. His only problem is with fellow NRM fighting him because DP is most likely not to front a candidate this time.
However, it is being rumored that Lord Mayor Erias Lukwago is considering a comeback to Kampala central as its MP.
Therefore, if Lukwago comes back, the report says he will complicate Nsereko’s chances.
It was reported that the NRM candidates in primaries who want this seat are too weak to defeat Lukwago.
They include Hajat Minsa Kabanda and Nyanzi who allegedly cannot match Nsereko.
In case Lukwago doesn’t return, NRM-leaning Nsereko’s chances are clearer.
Latif Ssebaggala is the MP. On the ground, most people say he should be given his last term but his chances are at stake courtesy of the entry of Sulaiman Kidandala in the race.
Kidandala is also opposition. It was reported that if Kidandala gains ground and the two stand, the NRM is in a sure win for this seat.
It is represented by Sebuliba Mutumba whose performance is reported to be low largely due to his health.
It is reported that Sebuliba is unlikely to retain this seat.
Secondly, Sebuliba is coming for a 4th term and he is being seen as turning the seat into a limited company. Because he belongs to Lukwago’s DP faction, it was reported that DP is fronting a candidate against him called Dan Ssali who was his campaign manager.
To make matters worse, FDC is also fronting Kanyike, Munyagwa and NRM is also fronting Madina Nsereko.
Because of this disorganization among opposition members, it was reported that NRM through Madinah Nsereko might grab the seat.
Attorney general Freddie Ruhindi is the area MP and wants to come back.
Ruhindi who is NRM will have to sweat to defeat new entrants in the race.
However, the report shows he still has strength compared to his opponents.
He faces usual opponents Kabaziruka [FDC] and Kenneth Kakande of DP who has failed countless times.
Ruhindi is also facing Gen. David Sejusa’s boy called Munungu Sejusa who is standing as an independent but sources say SDP is courting him to stand on its ticket. NRM is going to retain the seat according to intelligence.
KAMPALA WOMAN MP
Nabilah Naggayi Ssempala the incumbent faces stiff competition from Margret ZZiwa and Nakiwala Kiyingi Florence who has already grabbed the DP flag.
But as things stand according to the brief, Nakiwala is still ahead of her challengers.
Nabilah’s alleged short comings include internal wars in FDC where she belongs but she is being fought by top party bosses.
Secondly, Nabilah is being fought because she is serving a 3rd term while Zziwa has been on the political scene for too long.
As for Nakiwala, she has the backing of DP after winning its flag in primaries.
She also has the full backing of the Catholic Church and Mengo having served there as a minister for so long.