Security Names Deadly Constituencies Ahead Of Presidential Polls

The electoral commission last week announced how ballot papers for parliamentary and presidential elections had started to arrive in the country.


The ballots have been printed in South Africa.  The ballots come at a time when sources in security told us that there 50 constituencies that are under surveillance and have been marked as ‘VOLATILE’ as the country awaits the voting day of February 18/2016. As such, in these constituencies according to our sources in security, there is a plan to deploy heavily in them after reports trickled in suggesting that there is a likelihood of confrontations that might result into bloodshed if earlier measures are not taken. In this briefing, we reveal some of the targeted areas and why?


It is found in Masindi district. The main rivalry in this constituency is surprisingly between NRM diehards Kabakumba Masiko and state minister Ernest Kiiza. Whereas Kiiza is the official NRM flag bearer, Kabakumba is standing as an independent but with yellow posters. The FDC is also having a candidate here.

Kabakumba and Kiiza both come from the same sub-county of Kikungura sub-county in Bujenje district. Kabakumba is the reigning Bujenje county MP while Kiiza is the incumbent MP for Masindi municipality. However, according to information, Kabakumba after losing in the NRM primaries to Lt. Patrick Kasumba in Bujenje, she decided to raid the municipality. The reasons were two. One was that Kabakumba allegedly got info that  Kiiza had a big hand in her loss in Bujenje accusing the minister of backing Kasumba. Indeed, this alleged relationship between Kasumba and Kiiza was visible when president Yoweri Museveni visited the area for his campaigns on January 23/2016. While Kiiza was recognized and introduced at the rally, Kabakumba’s presence was as good as her absence. She wasn’t recognized yet she is the area MP. She waited for Museveni to finish his speech and she approached him to say a word of hullo to him.

Insiders tell us that Kabakumba after learning that Kiiza who is perceived to be weak in the municipality allegedly sidelined her in primaries, she relocated to his constituency. The duo started their biff after Kabakumba inflicted political misery on Kiiza for the slot of NRM district chairpersonship for Masindi district. Secondly, having been Masindi woman MP, Kabakumba left some supporters in the municipality who have been voting for FDC because they allegedly had issues with Kiiza. It is for this reason that the constituency has now become a war zone as the Kabakumba and Kiiza groups keep in weird confrontations. Security now believes that during elections, if there is no strict watch over this municipality, bloodshed might occur.


The constituency has been described as the most volatile as we had towards polls. Justice minister Kahinda Otafiire and his rival Capt. Donozio Kahonda are almost tearing up each other on a daily basis. As such, security hopes that if necessary deployments are not made, Ruhinda might become worse as the two military men battle to come to parliament. It should be remembered that Kahonda ho was a prisoner at that time in Nalufenya in Jinja defeated Otafiire in the NRM primaries. The minister has since stood as an independent.


It is located in Kamuli district represented by speaker Rebecca Kadaga. The main rivalry here is between Kadaga and state minister for works Asuman Kiyingi. Whereas Kiyingi is standing an independent, Kadaga is backing his rival Henry Kibalya for this seat. The two Busoga giants have been feuding since the last term of parliament and have nursed their biff to this date. In fact, when Museveni visited this constituency late last year for his campaigns, Kadaga kept reporting Kiyingi to the president. Kiyingi however, kept laughing his heart out as Kadaga reported him to the big man. On that rally, Kadaga accused Kiyingi of trying to sabotage Museveni’s rally by demobilizing fans from attending the rally. Museveni however, never responded and after his speech, he went to the next rally. Interestingly, Kadaga isn’t safe either because Kiyingi is also allegedly backing her rival Deborah Mwesigwa who is giving her sleepless nights. Sources stated that because of those camps, there is information that rival camps are planning violence during elections which necessitates deployments.


It is located in Katakwi district. Despite being in a distant area, it has a history of violence arising from recent by-election. In 2013, during a by-election which brought Proscovia Alengot o parliament after the death of her father Oromait, there was heavy violence that left some members of parliament nearly being torched. Or example the MP for Kumi county Amuriat Oboi Patrick [FDC] was allegedly undressed and left nearly pantyless by unknown people during this by-election. To make matters worse, the NRM camps in Katakwi one led by all powerful education minister Maj. Jessica Alupo and another led by MP Peter Ogwang are also allegedly threatening the possibilities of having a peaceful election in Katakwi unless security takes considerable measures to avert the situation. However, Alupo camp has maintained that no one will disorganize the polls. Alupo is defending her woman MP seat while Ogwang wants Usuk county seat.


Because it is near the city center, the area has been given extra attention also according to sources. Though NRM doesn’t claim it wholesomely, security is mainly concerned that the opposition camps are likely to shed blood during elections. The main feared groups are those of Democratic Party. Whereas the DP is fronting Wakaima as its official candidate, a breakaway faction called Truth and Justice [TJ] led by Lord Mayor Erias Lukwago is also fronting its own candidate Samuel Kibanga. According to sources, TJ is most feared because it is believed to be a radical group. As such, security is taking no chances and is going to deploy heavily in Nansana to avoid possible confrontations between opposition rival groups.


Just like Nansana, security believes that FDC presidential candidate Kizza Besigye is more active in Kira given the fact that his right hand warrior MP Ssemujju Nganda is standing here. It was reported that Kira is actually, the most feared constituency given its history of violence when locals here tried to torch Kira mayor Mamerito Mugerwa. The locals managed to burn his car to ashes and Mamerito survived by a whisker. Sources added that there is information that Besigye’s message of defiance has actually been propagated here mostly where several youths are allegedly being trained in ‘vote protection’. To make matters worse, there is fear that the opposition DP and FDC might engage into confrontations with each other since they both have strong candidates here. Sources stated that given their rivalry, this might give chance to NRM’s Juliet Najjuma to scoop the seat and such a declaration might spark off riots. This is the reason deployments are being proposed here according to our moles in intelligence.


Here, the main area of focus is on Mawokota north where trade minister Amelia Kyambadde is defending her seat as the area MP. The seat is under threat by a one Katusiime. A few days ago, information trickled in suggesting that one of Amelia’s posh benzis had been torched by unknown people. This was blamed on political rivalry. Now, sources stated that because of such incidents, it is most likely that the area might degenerate into a battle ground as Amelia and Katusiime camps tussle it out for the coveted seat. It should be remembered that Amelia floored Katusiime in primaries but the loser isn’t about to go down because she is standing as an independent.


Given the recent violence which left the NRM fans being clobbered by a group allegedly loyal to Amama Mbabazi, information is that this municipality has been put under surveillance cameras to avoid a repeat of the same.

Besides these clashes according to sources, there is high tension in the area arising from political rivalry pitting youth MP Gerald Karuhanga against Ntungamo municipality MP Yona Musinguzi. The two are in a bitter rivalry that intelligence claims that it might breed clashes anytime as we head to the voting day. This is the reason security is deploying heavily in it to avoid surprises.

Others are Mukono municipality, Ishaka municipality, Bungokho North County and Entebbe municipality, Masaka municipality among others.

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