ROAD TO JAN 15! Kasese on the Brink: Is FDC’s Grip Slipping as NRM Advances?
Museveni campaigning in Kasese on Thursday, 4th December ,2025
Kasese District’s political terrain is undergoing one of its most consequential realignments since the return of multiparty politics. Once an unshakeable stronghold of the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), the district is now a fiercely contested battleground, with the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) sensing an opportunity to expand its footprint as opposition parties grapple with internal fractures ahead of the January 15 election.
For years, the FDC reigned supreme in Kasese, producing outspoken legislators and formidable grassroots mobilisers. The party swept all five constituency seats and the district women’s parliamentary seat in the 2016 general elections, cementing its dominance.
But the 2021 polls marked a turning point. The NRM clawed back ground, winning three of the six parliamentary seats and securing a majority across the 44 lower local governments, an outcome that signalled a possible shift in voter loyalties.
That momentum appeared to coincide with growing challenges within the FDC. Although the party has sought to reassert itself, with former MPs Robert Centenary and William Nzoghu reclaiming Kasese Municipality and Busongora North respectively, internal rifts remain a vulnerability rivals are keen to exploit.
The cracks began to widen in 2018 when the party’s former presidential flagbearer, Maj. Gen. Mugisha Muntu quit to form the Alliance for National Transformation, taking with him key figures, including former Leader of Opposition Winnie Kiiza.
The situation was compounded by Dr Kizza Besigye’s subsequent move to establish the People Front for Freedom (PFF), deepening divisions and splintering support. Longtime FDC loyalists, among them then district chairperson Saulo Matte, also defected, further weakening the party’s cohesion.
Infighting during party primaries ahead of the 2026 elections also intensified the strain. Some supporters have openly vowed not to back official flag bearers, while analysts say fatigue with endless wrangles is driving voters toward alternatives such as the NRM and the National Unity Platform (NUP).
As the FDC struggles to hold its base, the NRM appears to be consolidating influence through targeted outreach. The party has sought to mend relations with local communities, engage traditional institutions such as the Obusinga Bwa Rwenzururu, and make strategic political appointments. Among the most visible figures is State Minister for ICT and National Guidance Godfrey Kabyanga, who has spent recent years crisscrossing villages to mobilise support.
Analysts say the approach is a calculated bid to capitalise on the opposition’s internal weaknesses. Dr Rude Monday Bwambale, an NRM aspirant for the Bukhonzo East parliamentary seat, says backing for President Yoweri Museveni and the ruling party is steadily rising. He points to improvements in social services, citing the upgrade of Nyabirongo Health Centre and the Nyamushana water project as evidence of tangible progress.
He describes these developments as a political game-changer, noting that the poor state of Nyabirongo had previously been used by the opposition to discredit the government.
NRM Administrative Secretary Robert Mitse argues that Kasese has witnessed one of its most transformative periods in the last four years under NRM leadership. He credits extensive infrastructure development as proof of the party’s commitment to improving livelihoods and highlights what he calls the government’s swift response to internal and external security threats that have affected the district.
Mitse adds that the decline of the FDC has worked to the NRM’s advantage, contending that many opposition leaders have failed to deliver on their promises. Echoing that sentiment, Ellen Biira, who is contesting for the Nyamwamba Division women’s council seat, warns that without urgent restructuring, the opposition risks being overtaken.
On the ground, some voters say the NRM’s development record is beginning to resonate. Joseph Mambo, a resident of Kasese Town for over a decade, credits road improvements in the municipality with boosting employment and business.
Others point to government programmes as changing perceptions. Salongo Abdu Rakim, a beneficiary of the Parish Development Model, says initial scepticism toward the NRM has eased as more residents begin to benefit from state projects.
Yet the opposition insists the contest is far from settled. Jonan Bwambale Bamwenda, the NUP flag bearer for Busongora North, argues that voters will not trade their demand for better leadership for what he calls cosmetic gains.
He faults the government for the collapse of major investments such as Kilembe Mines and the Katwe salt factory, and says the scars of the 2016 palace attacks, where about 100 people died, remain unhealed, with no compensation paid to victims’ families.
Kasese Municipality MP Kambale Ferigo says the NRM has outlined ambitious plans for the next term, including upgrading Kasese Airfield and rehabilitating the Nyamwamba River. He adds that government support for the medical treatment of Omusinga Charles Wesley Mumbere signals reconciliation and could sway more voters.
Meanwhile, Kasese Municipality Mayor Chance Kahindo, an FDC member, says he remains committed to his party while focusing on his administrative mandate to improve the town’s business environment.
The big question remains: can the NRM convert momentum into more seats? For nearly two decades, the party struggled to capture the district woman parliamentary seat. While several candidates are now in the race, analysts warn of internal divisions.
Support is split between NRM flag bearer Sarah Baleke and NRM-leaning independent Marlyne Kabugho, both of whom lost to Florence Kabugho (FDC) in 2021. Similar divisions loom in Kasese Municipality, where rival independents are refusing to step aside.
As for the NUP, despite fielding candidates across major races, the party faces hurdles. Many youthful aspirants lack the resources needed for effective campaigns. Robert Muthoma, a contender for the Kasese Municipality MP seat, says limited funding is constraining outreach.
With opposition parties fragmented and the ruling party pressing its advantage, Kasese heads into the 2026 elections at a political crossroads, one where long-held loyalties are being tested, and the outcome is anything but certain.
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