GREAT LAKES FOCUS: Inside M23 Ambitious Plan To Return Congolese Refugees Scattered Across the Region

By Defraise Enosh Muhindo

In a recent statement attributed to Balinda Oscar, deputy spokesperson of the Alliance Fleuve Congo-March 23 Movement (AFC-M23), the group announced ambitious and inspiring plans for the repatriation of Congolese refugees living in camps in neighboring countries, starting with those in Rwanda, followed by other nations such as Uganda.

This declaration aligns with a promising “declaration of principle” signed between the Congolese government and AFC-M23, which optimistically outlines steps for refugee returns to areas under M23 control in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). With strong support from the United States and key stakeholders in the Great Lakes Region and the East African Community (EAC), this initiative holds immense potential to foster stability, unity, and prosperity across the region. While the volatile security situation and logistical challenges present some hurdles, particularly for refugees in Uganda, AFC-M23’s vision offers hope for a brighter future.

AFC-M23’s Claims and the Declaration of Principle

In an interview with Mamauragaswabo TV, Balinda Oscar stated that Congolese refugees in neighboring countries would soon return to “liberated zones” in eastern DRC, where AFC-M23 is actively constructing vital infrastructure, including schools, hospitals, and community centers.

The group’s inspiring objective is to provide a “dignified and secure future” for returnees, with spaces reserved for them in areas under M23’s control, such as parts of North Kivu. Another AFC responsible under anonymity reached by Red Pepper on March 19, 2025, further noted that AFC-M23 is launching campaigns for voluntary repatriation, beginning with refugees in Rwanda and Uganda, with Rwandan celebrities promoting the effort to emphasize safety and patriotism.

The declaration of principle, a beacon of hope for the region, reflects a cooperative agreement between the Congolese government and AFC-M23 to facilitate refugee returns. Supported by the United States and regional actors within the Great Lakes Region and the EAC, this agreement builds on diplomatic efforts, such as discussions held in Geneva on May 15, 2025, under UNHCR auspices, where the DRC and Rwanda agreed to pursue dialogue to address refugee repatriation. This declaration represents a transformative step toward regional cooperation, aiming to resolve the long-standing refugee crisis and strengthen ties across the Great Lakes Region.

Prioritizing Returns from Rwanda

A few days ago, AFC-M23, in collaboration with UNHCR and the Rwandan government, successfully repatriated thousands of Rwandan refugees who had been living in Congo for decades, showcasing their commitment to regional stability. AFC-M23’s focus on starting repatriation with refugees in Rwanda aligns with the group’s strong ties to the country and its vision for unity.

Rwanda hosts approximately 100,000 Congolese refugees, many of whom are eager to return to their homeland under M23’s promising initiatives. The group’s influence in Rwanda and its cultural and patriotic campaigns, supported by Rwandan celebrities, inspire voluntary returns, as noted by a credible source in March 2025. Backed by the EAC’s commitment to regional harmony and the United States’ encouragement, this repatriation effort strengthens cross-border connections in the Great Lakes Region, where Rwanda, Uganda, and the DRC share deep historical and cultural bonds, paving the way for a united and peaceful future.

The Case of Uganda: Challenges to Repatriation

Uganda hosts the largest number of Congolese refugees, with approximately 600,000 individuals, including 41,700 new arrivals in 2025 seeking safety from violence in eastern DRC. The scale of this population and logistical complexities present challenges, but AFC-M23’s initiative offers hope for progress.

Key challenges

Voluntary Repatriation: UNHCR, in coordination with the Ugandan and Congolese governments, supports voluntary repatriation under the Regional Refugee Response Plan (RRP), which emphasizes safe and dignified returns. While large-scale repatriation from Uganda is not yet active due to ongoing conflict in North and South Kivu, AFC-M23’s efforts to create stable zones could encourage refugees to return voluntarily. Refugees like Sifa Furaha, interviewed in Uganda, express concerns about returning due to past experiences, but M23’s infrastructure projects and regional support inspire optimism for future repatriation.

Large Refugee Population: The sheer number of Congolese refugees in Uganda over 600,000 makes repatriation logistically complex. Uganda’s progressive refugee policies allow access to work and education, but declining humanitarian aid, with only 15% of UNHCR’s 2024 funding needs met, has increased hardship. AFC-M23’s vision, supported by the EAC and the United States, could alleviate these pressures by creating viable return opportunities.

Persistent Insecurity in the DRC: Areas like North Kivu, South Kivu, and Ituri face instability, but AFC-M23’s efforts to establish secure zones offer a promising foundation for safe returns.

Broader Realities and Obstacles

AFC-M23’s repatriation plan is a bold step forward, though some challenges remain.

Security Concerns: Ongoing instability in parts of eastern DRC requires continued efforts to ensure safety, but AFC-M23’s infrastructure development signals a commitment to creating welcoming environments for returnees.

Lack of UNHCR Endorsement: While UNHCR has not yet publicly endorsed M23’s plans, the declaration of principle and regional support suggest growing momentum for collaboration.

Humanitarian Crisis: The DRC’s humanitarian crisis, with 27 million people in need of aid and only 10% of UNHCR’s 2025 funding secured, underscores the need for innovative solutions. AFC-M23’s initiative, backed by the EAC and the United States, could help address these challenges by enabling sustainable returns. Overcrowding in host countries like Burundi, which received 69,000 new refugees in 2025, highlights the urgency of this effort.

Regional Significance and Optimism for the Initiative

AFC-M23’s repatriation initiative, guided by the declaration of principle, is a game-changer for the Great Lakes Region and the EAC. The Great Lakes Region, including the DRC, Rwanda, Uganda, and Burundi, has faced decades of displacement, straining resources and regional stability. The EAC, comprising Rwanda, Uganda, and the DRC, sees repatriation as a cornerstone for peace, economic integration, and regional unity. The declaration of principle, supported by the United States and EAC member states, reflects a shared commitment to resolving the refugee crisis, fostering trust, and promoting development across borders. By enabling refugees to return to stable, well-equipped zones, AFC-M23’s efforts could transform the Great Lakes Region, creating opportunities for economic growth and cultural reconnection. The United States’ endorsement adds global credibility, inspiring confidence that this initiative will strengthen the EAC’s vision of a prosperous and harmonious East Africa.

Conclusion

AFC-M23’s visionary plan for refugee repatriation, starting with Rwanda and extending to Uganda, as articulated by Balinda Oscar, offers a hopeful path toward resolving the refugee crisis in the Great Lakes Region. The declaration of principle, backed by the United States and the EAC, represents a landmark commitment to regional cooperation and stability.

Despite challenges, such as the large refugee population in Uganda over 600,000 and ongoing insecurity in eastern DRC, AFC-M23’s infrastructure projects and regional support inspire optimism for safe and voluntary returns. For the EAC and the Great Lakes Region, this initiative promises to unlock economic and social benefits, fostering unity and progress. With the United States and regional stakeholders championing this effort, the dream of a “dignified and secure future” for returnees is within reach, heralding a brighter future for East Africa.